Intervju je dat na engleskom jeziku, pa je preveden na nemački i objavljen uz redakcijsku obradu. Oni koji znaju nemački intervju mogu naći na adresi https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/351281.serbien-muss-wirtschaftliche-vorgaben-von-eu-und-iwf-befolgen.html.
Ovde je izvorna, engleska verzija intevjua.
- Twenty years ago NATO was bombing Belgrade. What are the main consequences today in an economic sense?
Since the war on Serbia was justified as a humanitarian intervention, I cannot resist but to digress and quote Carl Schmitt from his book published in 1932 ( THE CONCEPT OF THE POLITICAL): “The concept of humanity is an especially useful ideological instrument of imperialist expansion, and in its ethical-humanitarian form it is a specific vehicle of economic imperialism.”
The NATO bombing in 1999 came on top of the economic sanctions which were imposed on Serbia and Montenegro during the nineties. The consequences of the sanctions were probably more devastating for the Serbian economy than 77 days of bombing were. In the period 1992-1996 Serbia lived under a sanctions regime which had never before been seen in Europe. There was a total ban on exports and imports (except for humanitarian goods), a total ban on all financial transactions (even private transactions), assets were frozen, a commercial air traffic ban was imposed, etc. A special border control system was established on the borders of Serbia (and Montenegro), including control of the Danube and the high seas. The economic consequences were devastating, but equally so were the social consequences. The social structure and the fabric of society fell apart. The managerial class and middle class were decimated and have never recovered since.
Following the sanctions and the bombing campaign, Serbian GDP in 2000 was approximately 50% lower than it was in 1990. That is the state in which Serbia entered the new millennium.
The war on Serbia ruined most domestic companies. This created a gaping vacuum in the economy which was quickly and all too readily occupied by foreign takeovers. Those companies which were able to survive were bought by foreign, mainly western, companies or by unwholesome local businessmen who appeared on the scene during the dark days.
I do not have a shred of doubt that the goal of the war on Serbia was to take over its economy, using the false humanitarian pretext. Of course, the process was enabled and even expedited by the corrupt local political oligarchy (“comprador elite”) which became very rich in the process. Similar, if not identical, economic processes took place in the whole of Eastern Europe.
- How did »the west«, especially Germany, benefit from the NATO-Aggression? Which German/western companies or banks profited from the NATO-war?
To answer this question, let me start by outlining the state of the economy prior to the wars, with which your readers may well be unfamiliar. The Serbian economy (as part of the Yugoslav economy) was a functional, open market economy – indeed the only market economy amongst the socialist countries. Companies were competing in the market, and most of them were independent of government in their business decisions, profit distributions, etc. (Even Hungary, which came closest to Yugoslavia in that sense, was still far behind). Due to competition, the market was well supplied with good quality industrial products. Serbia did not suffer from a lack of consumer goods, typical of most of socialist countries. The banking system was well developed and focused on supporting domestic industry and production, but not consumption. There was no foreign ownership of Yugoslav companies before the country’s disintegration. The system was not ideal and had many weaknesses, but these were negligible in comparison to the system that we have today.
Today, almost all main industries are under foreign control, with the exception of public utilities which will be sold in the final phase of economic enslavement. The banking system is also in foreign hands. Understandably, foreign banks have no interest in supporting Serbian industry but prefer instead to finance mortgages and offer cash loans to individuals. These loans are mainly indexed in euros. As a consequence, Serbia now has vast numbers of heavily indebted people struggling to survive. This is to say nothing of the risks associated with interest rates and currency exchange rates. For the moment, the problem remains somewhat camouflaged as the Dinar is overvalued and interest rates are low, but the inevitable cannot be indefinitely postponed.
Germany profited enormously from the destruction of both Yugoslavia and Serbia. To start with, Germany was able to return to the Balkans as the most powerful and most influential European country by far. In economic terms, they profited enormously, but so did many other countries – Austria, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Russia, etc. To give an idea of the scale of Germany’s influence: there are more than 400 German companies in Serbia, employing a total of 50.000 workers. It would be fair to say that German companies are perceived as excellent employers. On the other hand, it appears that German banks, specifically, have no interest in the Serbian market, as only ProCredit bank operates in Serbia today.
Let me finish the answer with yet another quote, this time from the political operative Strobe Talbott, former US deputy secretary of state. He said: „it was Yugoslavia’s resistance to the broader trends of political and economic reform – not the plight of the Kosovar Albanians – that best explains NATO’s war“.
- How would you describe the relationship with the European Union?
I am a Europhile and I would like to see Serbia in the EU, but I have lost all hope. It seems to me that the goal of the EU is to keep Serbia out, whilst keeping it on a very short leash and use it as a bargaining chip in dealings with Turkey. I am afraid that Serbia (and other countries from the region which are not yet part of the EU) might become absorbed in a sort of Turkish ‘zone of interest’ as compensation to Turkey for having been denied entrance into the EU.
Serbia was promised accession, but the date (even a conditional one) has never been given and only ever seems to be moving further away. It is clear that Serbia will not enter the EU in the foreseeable future (if at all), even if it were to be able to fulfil all the conditions. Serbia has therefore traded its sovereignty for a vague, ill-defined promise. It is getting the worst of both worlds – allowing the EU to interfere and influence domestic policy (as though it were a part of the EU), whilst getting none of the benefits. Undeveloped Serbia had little choice but to open its market to foreign takeover and to follow economic dictates by the EU and the IMF.
The EU has a lot of internal problems, and Serbs, to put it mildly, are not very popular within Europe. It is evident that Serbia is being treated differently to how Romania, Bulgaria or Croatia were during their respective accession processes. Worse still, the EU readily blocks all alternative avenues that Serbia might have tried to explore, thus depriving Serbia of agency over its own future. Of course, I do not blame the EU. The geo-strategic policy is, by definition, always cynical, and the EU has every right to follow and enforce its own interests and agenda. I blame the Serbian elite for its incompetence, naivety and servitude.
- How did Serbia navigate the financial crisis in 2008?
On the face of it, not that badly. The growth rate in 2009 fell by approximately 3.2% which was less than Germany’s growth rate drop (at approximately 5.6%), or Baltic “tigers’” drop of almost 15%, that they suffered in 2009.
However, Serbia’s post-2008 recovery was very slow, indeed one of the slowest in Europe. The average yearly growth rate over the last 10 years was marginally higher than 1%. The Great Recession was not the main reason for Serbia’s economic problems. The global crises just brought Serbian internal weaknesses into the open. Since Serbia has not changed its economic model, and all the weaknesses are still there, Serbia is unable to move forward in any significant or meaningful way and is paying a heavy price for swallowing the poison pill of neoliberalism.
- In the German city Leipzig, there are too few bus-drivers. The Company can’t find employers, because fees are too low. Last Friday, they declared to search for workers in Serbia. Can you tell me about the working class in Serbia? Do wages decline in the country?
Wages in Serbia are not in decline, but their level is very low, one of the lowest in Europe. The average net salary is approximately €450, but with income inequalities being huge, even this figure gives a deceiving (in the sense of being overly-optimistic) picture of a quality of life that it simply does not provide. A better indicator would be the median wage, which is only €330. That better explains why tens of thousands of people are leaving Serbia each year.
It is also interesting to consider how West-centric the question of immigration has become. The EU has firmly focused on the negative effects of immigration from the standpoint of the host countries. But what is the future of those countries losing the young, and very often, the best and the brightest?
Using Marxist analysis, it is clear that the German business elite favours immigration in order to put pressure on local wages. Again, humanitarian reasons simply provide the cynical justification. Western powers first destroy countries (or enable their destruction), and then, in the name of humanity, let the victims in.
It is shocking to see that in Germany, the strongest economy in Europe, wages are effectively stagnant, inequality is the highest in the Eurozone, and 10% of German workers are on the minimum wage, or in precarious and insecure jobs. Of course, for workers coming from Eastern Europe, Germany is still very attractive, and still a better alternative to where they are coming from.
- The Serbian government declared, that the country will reach growth rates of about 4 Percent GDP. Will we see “a golden era” in Serbia?
As I mentioned before, the Serbian average long-term growth rate was exceptionally low after 2008. The growth rate in 2018 was probably 4.2%, but that was anomalous. That growth rate would be very high for developed nations, but for developing countries it is a mediocre rate. That is not a growth rate that will change Serbia’s economic position. For a change to take place, the annual growth rate should be in the range of 5-7%, at least. With the current economic model, it is impossible. So, saying that Serbia is entering “the golden era”, the statement made by the president of Serbia, came directly from a Monty Python script.
- Serbia is a candidate-country for the European Union. What economic-conditions needs the government to satisfy? Should Serbia further liberalize its economy?
Serbia has been an EU candidate since 2012. In the accession process, Serbia has to negotiate and to harmonise 35 different policy fields, or accession chapters, in order to bring their legislation in line with the EU rules and legislation. So far, Serbia has completed only 2 chapters and has opened a further 16. So, it has a long way to go, even if the EU is serious about admitting Serbia, which I sincerely doubt. There are also numerous problems, particular to Serbia. For example, when it comes to the rule of law and corruption, Serbia is not helping its case. It is of no consolation that there are some other EU countries with much the same problems.
There are numerous chapters dealing with Serbia’s economic issues, but I do not think that those chapters would be stumbling blocks in the accession process. Serbia liberalised its economy at great length, so much so that I believe it is destructive for its future. It would have been wiser for Serbian economists to have read Friedrich List instead of von Hayek or Friedman.
- What role do foreign investors in Serbia play?
Like most countries in transition, Serbia has no coherent economic strategy and relies solely on foreign investments as its key vehicle for growth. Serbia has accepted the neoliberal model with all the empty mantras that go with it. I compare this process to classical colonisation, but with a twist. Great powers of XVIII and XIX century imposed colonial system by brute force. Today, new colonies pay out in order to be colonised. They give out ludicrous subsidies to foreign investors at the expense of local businesses, they provide unreasonable tax incentives at the expense of its budget, and they sell their assets and resources cheaply. With most of the workers tied up in manual jobs and on low wages, Serbia’s industry has no future. Syndicates are very often either non-existent or are just passive, offering no protection to employees. In short, Serbia and countries like Serbia have become colonies by their own doing. The end result is that Serbia is not even in a middle-income trap but is locked in a persistent low-income trap. Interestingly, this new colonisation was not “translated” into higher wages for workers in colonising countries.
- What should the government do to stabilize the Dinar?
The Dinar has been stable for the last few years and is paradoxically appreciating. It is not too difficult to stabilize currency if you run a neutral monetary policy while implementing an austerity program, where you cut budget spending, pensions and wages. The Dinar was also helped by the growth of direct foreign investments and the supply of foreign currency which comes with it.
For developing countries, the obsession with a stable currency is misplaced. I would even call it a mortal sin, since it usually results in an overvalued currency, a loss of competitiveness, a current account deficit and consequently, an accumulation of foreign debt and a worsening of the country’s net international investment position. At the end of this road, the country will face currency, banking and foreign debt crises. Let me again emphasise – pursuing a neoliberal agenda is the fastest way to economic destruction.
- Does the trade-war between the USA and China influence the Serbian economy?
At the moment, the Serbian economy has not been directly affected by this mega conflict, but I am afraid the situation will change very soon. This is not just a war between the USA and China, it is now becoming a war between China and the West. It seems that the process of de-globalisation has just started and the world is entering a very dangerous phase, something that we have not seen since the Second World War. Small countries will be no more than pawns and/or major victims of that conflict, and the pressure on small nations will be especially strong in Europe. Serbia has already had a taste of this, when the “South stream” pipeline project (which should have brought energy security to the Balkans and Serbia) was blocked by the EU as a direct consequence of the new cold war with Russia. Of course, the “Nord stream 2” project continues as planned.
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